Skip to content
Aperlena
Language:

Development of an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer based on ECMWF forecast and reanalysis information in support of the C3S Operational Attribution Office

Original Germany - Research and development services and related consultancy services - C3S2_610 Development of an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer based on ECMWF forecast and reanalysis information in support of the C3S Operational Attribution Office

Open Contract notice 9 days left
Watch this tender

Deadline 1 Oct. If it moves, an email when the register sees it. A correction: the same email. Log in

  1. Published
  2. Today
  3. Deadline open for 66 days
  4. Awarded pending

The Aperlena Verdict

Open race

No supplier dominates: 14 different companies have won the last 14 comparable contracts from this buyer over 5 years. This is a genuinely open race.

-0.5%
Expected final price vs the published estimate

Based on 14 comparable awards by this buyer in this sector over 5 years. Every verdict is recorded before the outcome and graded against the award notice. How we score ourselves.

Summary

Machine-generated summary

ECMWF, based in Germany, is procuring research and development services to create an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer supporting the C3S Operational Attribution Office. Using ECMWF forecasts and reanalysis products, the supplier will derive event-specific diagnostics showing how extreme events might differ without human-induced climate change. No new large-scale climate simulations will be run. A single Framework Agreement of up to 18 months will be awarded, implemented via one multi-annual service contract starting around Q1 2027. No estimated value or submission deadline is stated in the notice. Tenderers must propose a scientifically robust, operationally feasible, reproducible and transparent methodology, with a handover package for future operational use.

Description

The aim of this ITT is to develop an event-linked counterfactual evidence layer to support the C3S Operational Attribution Office. Using ECMWF forecasts and reanalysis products, it will derive event-specific counterfactual diagnostics that provide additional evidence on how the intensity, probability or other characteristics of observed extreme events may have differed in the absence of human-induced climate change. ECMWF intends to award a single Framework Agreement, with a maximum duration of 18 months, which shall be implemented via a single multi-annual Service Contract, expected to commence at the beginning of Q1 2027. This ITT aims to develop a methodological framework and supporting procedures for generating event-conditioned diagnostic evidence for high-impact extreme events by assessing how key characteristics of observed present-day events would differ under counterfactual climate conditions without anthropogenic warming. Tenderers must propose a scientifically robust and operationally feasible approach, including an assessment of data availability, computational requirements, reproducibility, interpretability and delivery timelines, while confirming that no new large-scale climate or weather model simulations will be undertaken. The successful tenderer will, in consultation with C3S, establish quality requirements and an evaluation methodology to assess the physical consistency, robustness, reproducibility, transparency and limitations of the derived evidence, and will provide a comprehensive handover package to support future operational or pre-operational implementation.

Official source

Source: TED - Tenders Electronic Daily (Publications Office of the EU)

Always verify details on the official notice.

Last verified against TED - Tenders Electronic Daily (Publications Office of the EU) 1 month ago

View the official notice

More from this buyer

Full buyer profile

3 open tenders right now

Who usually wins this buyer's contracts in this sector

Company Wins Total awarded Last win
Norwegian Meteorological Institute - MET Norway 1 €7.9M Jul 2026
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Deutscher Wetterdienst; Météo-France; Meteorological Office, trading as the Met Office, a Government Trading Fund within the Department of Science, Innovation and Technology of the United Kingdom 1 €6.2M Nov 2025
NPL Management Ltd (NPL) 1 €2.7M Jul 2026
ACRI-ST S.A.S; b.geos GmbH (BGEOS); Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek (VITO) 1 €2.1M Feb 2026
Development Seed, Unipessoal Lda 1 €1.9M Apr 2026

Based on 14 awards with a linked company profile over the last 5 years.

What this buyer has paid before

Based on 14 comparable contracts this buyer awarded in this sector over the last 4 years.

€1.4M
Lower quartile
€1.5M
Median award
€2.1M
Upper quartile

This tender is estimated 49.8% below that median

Most recent awards

Award values as published by the official sources. Use them as a guide, not a rule: scope, lots and duration differ between contracts.

Change history

Every time an official source republished this notice with different content. We watch every source we index, including regional copies of the same notice.

  1. Act now
    • Estimated value: Set to €750,000
    • Submission deadline: Moved 1 day EARLIER: now October 1, 2026, 00:00
    • Scope and criteria: The description was expanded. Re-read it before you bid.
    • Estimated value: Set to €750,000

Follow this tender and we email you the moment it changes. Create account

Similar tenders

Market context

Avg. open tender · Research & development
€3,411,518
576 open across Europe right now 78% below sector average
Buyer track record on Aperlena
41 notices tracked · 14 awarded
€31,959,356 in awarded contracts

Never miss a tender like this

28 new notices in Research & development in Germany in the last 7 days. Get an email when new ones appear. Free.

Set up my alert

9 days left

Source

Keyboard shortcuts

Read a list without reaching for the mouse. The shortcuts stay quiet while you type in a field.

j
Next result
k
Previous result
Enter
Open the result
n
Next page
p
Previous page
c
Compare this result
s
Shortlist this result
/
Jump to the search box
?
Show these shortcuts
Esc
Close