How accurate is the Aperlena Verdict?
On tenders where we have enough history, Aperlena takes a stance: is this an open race or has the incumbent already won it? We write that call down before the outcome exists, and grade it against the official award notice when it lands. This page is the running score, unedited.
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144,103 calls waiting for their result
How the grading works
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A call is recorded only when a buyer has at least four comparable awards in the same sector. Below that we say nothing, and nothing is graded.
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"Incumbent-locked" predicts the recent leader wins again. "Open race" predicts they do not. Both are graded against the winner on the official award notice.
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"Narrow field" is a deliberate no-call. It is shown to readers but never counted as a hit or a miss: claiming credit for a hedge is how track records become fiction.
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Grades are written once and never revised. The number above is computed live from the same table this page reads.