Germany - Research services - Modelling climate change impacts for coastal sites in West Africa

Modelling climate change impacts for coastal sites in West Africa With this invitation to tender, the Common Wadden Sea Secretariat (CWSS) of the Trilateral Wadden Sea Cooperation (TWSC) is seeking a qualified consultant/team of consultants to assist in the development of Climate Change Impact Models for coastal wetlands in West Africa. The development of these models is part of a larger project titled "Climate Resilience for Critical Sites for Migratory Birds and People along the East Atlantic Flyway (CREAF)". The consultant / consortium of consultants is expected to have proven experience in climate change impact modelling, both from a theoretical as well as practical perspective. 1) Background The East Atlantic Flyway is a vast area that covers all sites used by millions of migratory waterbirds throughout their annual life cycle. It connects breeding areas in the Arctic and Europe with staging and non-breeding sites along the western coast of Europe and Africa all the way to South Africa. Moreover, it is an essential flyway for many intra-African migratory species breeding in Africa as well as for resident birds. Along the flyway there is often conflict between the needs of birds and the needs of people, who both benefit from the ecosystem services provided by coastal wetlands. Climate change (in form of temperature increases, sea level rise, extreme weather events) will further accentuate this conflict in the absence of effective mechanisms that incorporate biodiversity, ecosystem services and people into climate adaptation responses at the landscape level. Lasting co-existence between people and biodiversity requires effective, large scale and coordinated planning and management. CREAF is a large-scale, multi-partner flyway project, working with local communities, site managers, researchers, and policymakers from 11 countries along the African Atlantic Coastline. The aim is to improve the resilience of the East Atlantic Flyway to climate change through targeted actions for local wetlands. This includes finding sustainable solutions for climate adaptation at sites of international importance for migratory birds that incorporate the needs of biodiversity and people. Climate impact models are a powerful tool to predict and subsequently manage the effects of climate change on coastal wetlands and biodiversity, as well as local communities and their livelihoods. By integrating data from hydrodynamic, atmospheric, ecological, and socio-economic systems, these models help policymakers and managers to make informed decisions about risk management, climate adaptation and long-term planning for nature conservation and rural development. Global models may not accurately reflect the impact at the site level as they lack information on specific local conditions. This leads to inaccurate predictions and prevents effective management of climate change impacts on a smaller scale. Their performance can be improved by informing the model with local data. Within this project, climate change impact models shall be developed for 2 important sites for migratory waterbirds in Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau, with the possibility to add a third site in Senegal. The focus will be to model potential climate change impacts on biodiversity and local livelihoods and share the knowledge with manager and policy makers. 2. Scope of Work and Key Tasks The outcomes of the models will be an integral part of the CREAF-project, informing management- and policy decisions at the local level, while also providing a framework for similar initiatives for other sites in the future. To achieve the most reliable predictions, models must be grounded in local conditions and consider the hydrodynamics, geomorphology, ecology and socio-economy of each site. The consultant(s) are therefore expected to work closely with local partners in collecting data and validating model results, as well as the interpretation and communication of model results. Specifically, the project shall focus on the following tasks: Key Tasks 1) Lead the development of climate change impact monitoring systems for key sites with different habitats and tidal characteristics, the Banc d"Arguin in Mauritania and the Bijagós Archipelago in Guinea Bissau. - Compile historical and projected climate data relevant to the selected sites. - Assist local partners in identifying available hydrodynamic, morphologic, environmental, socio-economic, and other relevant dataset, and/or developing suitable, cost-effective, field-based methodologies for long-term monitoring schemes for other parameters to model impacts. - Analyse local monitoring data, either from existing sources or from new field efforts. - Analyse remote sensing data that can be used to inform specific model parameters for which field observations are missing. - Consider the expansion to the Saloum Delta in Senegal. 2) Develop climate change impact models that best fit the local requirements. - Develop conceptual and mathematical representations of impact pathways. - Identify the most suitable combination of models for each site to predict ecosystem changes, and its implications for migratory birds and local communities, under different climate change scenarios. - Integrate GIS-based spatial analysis, where relevant. - Develop a minimum of 2 models, one for Banc d"Arguin and one for the Bijagós. - Ensure transparency, reproducibility, and scalability. - Consider suitability of models for the Saloum Delta (and explore necessary adjustments). 3) Model application - Calibrate the model using historical climate, morphological, ecological, and socio-economic data. - Run the model under multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. - Validate results against observed trends or independent datasets. - Assess short-, medium-, and long-term risks to migratory birds and local communities. - Identify thresholds, and tipping points, and non-linear effects. - Map exposure of habitats, species groups and settlements to climate risk factors. - Generate outputs relevant to policy and management. 4) Model interpretation and use - Assist project partners in translating model outputs into actionable recommendations. - Support prioritisation of interventions. - Provide documentation for future model updates and use. The consultant/team of consultants is expected to have proven experience in developing climate change impact models for coastal (tidal) wetlands. This experience should be demonstrated through relevant projects, publications, or completed assignments, that include the integration of different climate change scenarios, hydrodynamic processes, and ecological responses, from both a theoretical and a practical perspective. Experience working with diverse stakeholder groups to develop policy and management recommendations based on model outputs, supported by examples of past stakeholder engagement or co-development processes, is highly desirable. Knowledge of the specific characteristics of the key sites, including the biophysical, ecological and socio-economic contexts, will be an advantage. For teams, clearly defined roles and responsibilities should be provided. The involvement of women and youth (18-35 years) is strongly encouraged and should be reflected in the proposed team composition. A close collaboration with partners from CWSS, the University of Groningen and experts from other project partner organisation is foreseen throughout the project and should be considered in the approach laid out in the tender. 3) Key deliverables - Inception Report with refined objectives, methodologies, scenarios, and data sources for selected sites. - Detailed guidelines for specific field methodologies to be implemented at the site level. - Climate, environmental & socio-economic data packages per site, including all data used for model parameterization. - At least two transparent, reproducible impact models (Banc d"Arguin and Bijagós), including GIS-based spatial components. - GIS-based maps of exposure of habitats, migratory bird groups, and local settlements to key climate risk factors. - Knowledge transfer: Translation of model outputs into actionable recommendations.